If you have recently noticed your favourite chocolate bar creeping up in price or vanishing from the shelves altogether, you’re not imagining things. Welcome to the reality of the cocoa shortage — a global crisis that’s reshaping the chocolate industry from bean to bar.
At The Cocoa Circle, we’re not just passionate about delicious, ethically sourced cocoa — we are also here to keep you informed and connected to the people and stories behind your favourite treats. So, let’s break it down: what’s really going on, what’s causing the shortage, and what it means for you, the industry, and the farmers at the heart of it all.
What Is the Cocoa Shortage?
The cocoa shortage refers to a significant drop in global cocoa supply — especially from West Africa, which accounts for around 70% of the world’s cocoa. Yields have plummeted, shipping costs have soared, and unstable weather patterns are wreaking havoc on once-reliable harvests.
This isn’t just a bump in the road; it’s a complex, ongoing disruption affecting the global chocolate market and the people who grow the beans.
Why Is It Happening?
The cocoa shortage is driven by a mix of environmental, economic, and systemic issues:
1. Climate Change
Unpredictable rains, extended droughts, and rising temperatures are hitting cocoa-growing regions hard. In Mexico, farmers like Lily from Finca Cacayo and Viridiana from Hacienda RC spoke of severe heatwaves becoming increasingly common. The impacts on biodiversity have been devastating.
2. Crop Disease & Ageing Trees
Diseases like swollen shoot virus, combined with ageing cocoa trees, are reducing yields significantly. Replacing trees takes years, not months, meaning long-term supply issues.
3. Cost of Farming
Inputs like fertilisers and labour have become more expensive, with many farmers unable to afford what’s needed to keep farms productive. These rising costs are not reflected in the prices they’re paid.
4. Market Volatility
Cocoa prices have surged past $10,000 per tonne in some markets — but this doesn’t mean farmers are earning more. Speculation and trader-controlled pricing mean profits rarely reach the producers.
The International Cocoa Organization estimates that global production could drop by around half a million tonnes this year. To put that into context, that’s about 10% of total global production.
How the Cocoa Shortage Is Reshaping the Chocolate Industry?
Big Brands Are Cutting Corners
Some mass-market brands are reducing cocoa content, using substitutes, or shrinking bar sizes to manage rising costs.
Artisan Brands Face Pressure
Ethical and small-scale chocolatiers are struggling with supply and pricing, forced to choose between increasing prices or reducing margins.
Sustainability Is No Longer Optional
More consumers are asking: Where does my chocolate come from? Brands are being held accountable for how they source and who they support — and the cocoa shortage has made those questions urgent.
The Human Cost: Cocoa Farmers at Risk
More consumers are asking: Where does my chocolate come from? Brands are being held accountable for how they source and who they support — and the cocoa shortage has made those questions urgent.
What Is the Current Price of cocoa?
A direct factor of the cocoa shortage, as of early 2025, the price of cocoa more than doubled compared to previous years, reaching record highs. While market prices hover around $10,000 USD per tonne, the disparity between this number and what farmers actually receive remains vast.
For smallholder farmers, it means more uncertainty, not more profit.
The Human Cost: Cocoa Farmers at Risk
In most cases, a cocoa farmer wage is about $0.78 a day.
Meanwhile, post-harvest losses are increasing due to erratic weather, lack of proper drying facilities, and more pests than usual. Supply is down. While chocolate companies increase their prices to account for the gap in their losses, the farmers’ salaries remains the same — with simply less to sell.
That’s not just unfair, it’s unsustainable.
So… What Can We Do About It?
Choose brands that put farmers first. When you buy from companies that prioritise direct trade and fair pay, you help create a more sustainable cocoa economy.
At The Cocoa Circle, we’re constantly working towards a better system, where the people at the start of the supply chain get more for their work. For us, that means both reducing the number of middlemen, as well as offering direct support to hardworking farmers in the form of sustainability microprojects.
Every spoonful of cocoa, every homemade dessert, every baking moment with our Cocoa Powder, Cocoa Drops or Cacao Nibs supports our mission.
The cocoa shortage is more than a supply chain issue — it’s a wake-up call. It’s a reminder that chocolate doesn’t start in factories, but on farms, with real people whose livelihoods depend on fair systems.
