Just a year ago, cocoa prices reached record highs, with fears of a global cocoa shortage dominating headlines. Today, the picture looks very different. Global production has recovered, prices have fallen dramatically, and the market has shifted from a historic deficit to a surplus.
But does that mean chocolate is becoming cheaper? And are cocoa farmers finally benefiting? Not quite.
Here's what changed, and why the cocoa story is far from over.
From Historic Deficit to Market Surplus
During the 2023–2024 cocoa season, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) estimated a global production deficit of roughly 489,000–494,000 tonnes, one of the largest shortages on record.
That shortage sent cocoa prices soaring above US$12,000 per tonne in early 2025.
Since then, improved harvests and weaker demand have shifted the market into surplus. The ICCO now expects global production to exceed demand during both the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, helping prices fall back to around US$4,000 per tonne.
While the supply crisis has eased, many of the underlying challenges remain.
Why was there a Global Cocoa Shortage?
6 Key Factors Behind the Cocoa Bean Crisis
So, what exactly happened?
The answer isn’t so simple. This isn’t about one single issue, but more like a perfect storm of factors. Here’s what’s drove cocoa production down to its lowest numbers in decades:
1. Extreme weather and climate change
Most cocoa-producing regions are facing unpredictable rainfall and extreme heatwaves, disrupting everything from flowering to pod development. These changes have been amplified by El Niño, a natural climate pattern that warms the Pacific Ocean and alters global weather. El Niño often brings drought to some areas and heavy rain to others.
The epicenter of the crisis is West Africa, home to most of the world's cocoa, where large-scale production makes the impact even more severe. Occasional flooding in these areas made it harder dry and transport beans, raising the risk of spoilage and post-harvest loss.
2. Disease in cocoa plants
Ghana, one of the world’s top exporters, is battling swollen shoot disease, a virus that kills cocoa trees and spreads rapidly. Some regions have lost entire farms, leading to long-term drops in output.
3. Aging Trees and Declining Yields
Much of the world's cocoa supply comes from trees that are 20 to 40 years old, well past their peak. Without replanting programs or incentives, farmers struggle to maintain productivity.
4. Soaring input costs
The prices of fertiliser, equipment, and even basic farm maintenance have risen sharply. Many smallholder farmers are unable to afford the essentials to keep their farms healthy and productive.
5. Low Farmgate Prices
Even as global cocoa prices reached record highs in 2024 and 2025, most farmers recieved only a fraction of the value of their beans. In countries where governments regulate cocoa pricing, like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, farmers are locked into prices set months before the harvest. This means farmers may not fully benefit when global prices rise, and they can still face financial pressure when prices fall again.
6. Unequal value distribution
Most of the money from chocolate sales leaves the countries where it’s grown. This means local communities often lack the resources to invest in farm sustainability or build local chocolate industries. As a result, farmers struggle to maintain resilient, high-quality farms, making it harder to build a resilient and sustainable cocoa sector for the future.
These long-term pressures contributed to the historic supply crunch, and they continue to threaten cocoa production in the future.
The Impact on the Chocolate you Buy
In early 2024, cocoa prices passed $10,000 per metric ton, a historic high. For consumers, this meant paying more for chocolate, even if the increase wasn't always obvious. Rather than dramatically raising prices overnight, many brands spread the higher costs through smaller bars, premium price increases, or recipe changes that used less cocoa.
Although cocoa prices have since fallen significantly from their 2025 peak, don't expect chocolate prices to drop just as quickly. Manufacturers often buy cocoa months in advance through long-term contracts, and other costs—such as energy, packaging, transport, and labour—remain elevated.
As a result, retail chocolate prices tend to lag behind changes in the cocoa market. Large manufacturers cut corners by reducing cocoa content, increasing sugar, or relying more on fillers and dairy.
So while the prices are back down, the result is still inconsistent quality on shelves, and chocolate that delivers fewer of cacao’s natural benefits.
What does this mean for your chocolate? Often, it means chocolate that’s less rich, less flavourful, and less aligned with health and ethical standards. Meanwhile, smaller ethical producers are being priced out by big buyers locking in exclusive contracts.
That leaves consumers with fewer options for chocolate that’s better for their health, their values, and the planet
At the same time, regardless of the market prices, consumer awareness is growing. More and more people are asking: Where does my chocolate come from? Brands are being held accountable not just for how they source, but also for how they support the farmers at the heart of chocolate.
Who’s Hit Hardest? The People Who Grow It
The quality of chocolate isn't the only thing affected. Ironically, even when cocoa prices reached record highs in 2024 and early 2025, many farmers saw little of the financial benefit.
Now that global cocoa prices have fallen, many farmers continue to face the same challenges: rising production costs, climate risks, and the ongoing struggle to earn a sustainable income. Smallholder farmers produce around 90% of the world's cacao, yet many still don't earn enough to invest in the long-term future of their farms.
On average, a cocoa farmer earns less than $2.00 a day. Without support, many farmers may be forced to abandon cocoa farming entirely or switch to crops that offer more stable returns. These changes can contribute to deforestation, reduce biodiversity in tropical forests, and ultimately threaten the long-term resilience of the global cocoa supply.
So, What’s the Solution?
How can we build a more resilient cocoa supply chain, so that consumers get good quality cocoa, and farmers get faire prices, regardless of market costs?
Real change is possible in the chocolate industry, but it requires commitment from all of us. We need to rethink how chocolate is produced, sourced, and valued.
While there’s no quick fix to the long-term cocoa resilience, at The Cocoa Circle, we believe the path forward lies in regenerative farming, fairer systems, and building long-term relationships that empower farmers to adapt and thrive in a changing climate.
That’s why we’re partnering with farms in Mexico and beyond to:
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Regenerate soil and biodiversity through agroforestry
→ Read about our reforestation micro-projects in Tabasco -
Support better drying and fermentation systems to reduce waste and boost quality
→ Explore how we’re improving post-harvest solutions - Promote direct trade and fair pay, giving farmers more control over their income and the resources to invest in sustainable farming and local chocolate initiatives
- Encourage conscious chocolate choices by selecting purer, single-origin, minimally processed cacao products. Supporting these products helps sustain ethical farming and ensures you experience the full benefits of cacao.
And, we’re committed to making all of this visible to you because transparency builds trust and connection.
So… What Can you Do About It?
The immediate shortage may have eased, but the challenges facing cocoa farming haven't disappeared. Climate change, low farmer incomes and ageing plantations continue to threaten the future of chocolate.
Supporting brands that invest directly in farmers and regenerative agriculture remains one of the most effective ways consumers can help build a healthier cocoa industry.
Look for minimally processed cacao products, like our pure cocoa powder or single-origin cacao nibs, that celebrate the true richness of the bean.
Stay informed about the forces behind price hikes and remember that fair pricing is about cost and it's about respect for farmers, local producers, and the planet.
Together, we can build a future where chocolate remains joyful, delicious, and fair from bean, to baking, to bar!
FAQ
Is there still a cocoa shortage in 2026?
Not in the same way. Following the record deficit of the 2023/24 season, global production has recovered and the ICCO forecasts market surpluses for 2024/25 and 2025/26. However, long-term challenges such as climate change and farmer incomes remain.
Why did cocoa prices fall?
After reaching record highs in early 2025, improved harvests, increased production and softer global demand pushed prices back down during 2026.
Will chocolate become cheaper?
Not necessarily. Retail chocolate prices often lag behind commodity prices because manufacturers purchase cocoa months in advance and still face higher costs for energy, labour and packaging.
Are cocoa farmers better off now?
Not always. Although some farmers benefited from higher farmgate prices during the price spike, many continue to face low incomes, climate risks and rising production costs.
Should I still buy ethically sourced chocolate?
Yes. Choosing chocolate from companies that support fair pay, regenerative farming and direct partnerships helps strengthen the long-term resilience of cocoa-growing communities.
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