If you’ve noticed your favourite chocolate getting pricier or harder to find, you’re not alone. From supermarket shelves to specialty chocolate shops, the effects of a global cocoa shortage are becoming harder to ignore.
But what’s actually causing this drop in supply? And how is it shaping the future of chocolate production, prices, and the people behind the beans? Let’s break down what’s happening, why it matters, and how we can all be part of a more resilient cocoa future.
First: Is There Really a Cocoa Shortage?
Yes—and it’s not just temporary. The 2023–2024 harvest season has seen a dramatic decline in global cocoa production, with the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) predicting a shortfall of over 370,000 metric tons. In some countries, this is the worst harvest in decades.
The result? Skyrocketing prices, tighter inventories, and increased pressure on farmers and the entire chocolate supply chain.
Why Is there a Global Cocoa Shortage?
6 Key Factors Behind the Cocoa Bean Crisis
So, what exactly is going on here?
The answer isn’t so simple. This isn’t about one single issue, but more like a perfect storm of factors. Here’s what’s driving the cocoa shortage around the world:
1. Extreme weather and climate change
Most cocoa-producing regions are now facing unpredictable rainfall and extreme heatwaves, disrupting everything from flowering to pod development. These changes have been amplified by El Niño, a natural climate pattern that warms the Pacific Ocean and alters global weather. El Niño often brings drought to some areas and heavy rain to others.
The epicenter of the crisis is West Africa, home to most of the world’s cocoa, where large-scale production makes the impact even more severe. Flooding in these areas has made it harder to dry and transport beans, raising the risk of spoilage and post-harvest loss.
Curious? Learn more about the importance of the bean-drying process here.
2. Disease in cocoa plants
Ghana, one of the world’s top exporters, has been battling swollen shoot disease, a virus that kills cocoa trees and spreads rapidly. Some regions have lost entire farms, leading to long-term drops in output.
3. Aging Trees and Declining Yields
Much of the world’s cocoa supply comes from trees that are 20 to 40 years old, well past their peak. Without replanting programs or incentives, farmers struggle to maintain productivity.
4. Soaring input costs
The prices of fertiliser, equipment, and even basic farm maintenance have risen sharply. Many smallholder farmers are unable to afford the essentials to keep their farms healthy and productive.
5. Low Farmgate Prices
Even as global prices rise, most farmers receive only a fraction of the value of their beans. In countries where governments regulate cocoa pricing, like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, farmers are locked into prices set months before the harvest. This means they don’t benefit from the current market surge.
6. unequal value distribution
Most of the money from chocolate sales leaves the countries where it’s grown. This means local communities often lack the resources to invest in farm sustainability or build local chocolate industries. As a result, farmers struggle to maintain resilient, high-quality farms, which adds to long-term cocoa shortages.
The IMpact on the chocolate you buy
In early 2024, cocoa prices passed $10,000 per metric ton, which is a historic high. That spike is raising costs for everything from chocolate bars to baking cocoa. But price is just the beginning.
Some large manufacturers are cutting corners by reducing cocoa content, increasing sugar, or relying more on fillers and dairy. The result? A cocoa powder shortage, more inconsistent quality on shelves, and chocolate that delivers fewer of cacao’s natural benefits.
For consumers, this often means chocolate that’s less rich, less flavourful, and less aligned with health and ethical standards. Meanwhile, smaller ethical producers are being priced out by big buyers locking in exclusive contracts. That leaves consumers with fewer options for chocolate that’s better for their health, their values, and the planet
At the same time, consumer awareness is growing. More and more people are asking: Where does my chocolate come from? And in an era of scarcity, those questions carry even more weight. Now, brands are being held accountable not just for how they source, but also for how they support the farmers at the heart of chocolate.
Who’s Hit Hardest? The People Who Grow It
The quality of chocolate isn’t the only thing impacted. The hardest hit are the smallholder farmers who produce around 90% of the world’s cacao. Many of them already face income insecurity, climate vulnerability, and lack of infrastructure. Now, they’re being asked to do more with less.
While market prices have doubled, most farmers see little of that increase. On average, a cocoa farmer earns just $0.78 a day. Without support, many farmers may be forced to abandon cocoa entirely or turn to less sustainable crops. This not only affects the current cocoa shortage, but could permanently reduce the world’s long-term supply.
So, What’s the Solution?
Don’t worry, all is not lost! Real change is possible in the chocolate industry, but it requires commitment from all of us. We need to rethink how chocolate is produced, sourced, and valued.
While there’s no quick fix to the cocoa shortage crisis, at The Cocoa Circle, we believe the path forward lies in regenerative farming, fairer systems, and building long-term relationships that empower farmers to adapt and thrive in a changing climate.
That’s why we’re partnering with farms in Mexico and beyond to:
- Regenerate soil and biodiversity through agroforestry
→ Read about our reforestation micro-projects in Tabasco - Support better drying and fermentation systems to reduce waste and boost quality
→ Explore how we’re improving post-harvest solutions - Promote direct trade and fair pay, giving farmers more control over their income and the resources to invest in sustainable farming and local chocolate initiatives
- Encourage conscious chocolate choices by selecting purer, single-origin, minimally processed cacao products. Supporting these products helps sustain ethical farming and ensures you experience the full benefits of cacao.
And, we’re committed to making all of this visible to you because transparency builds trust and connection.
So… What Can you Do About It?
Is there a shortage of cocoa? Yes, and it’s a serious challenge. But your choices still matter. By supporting brands that prioritise ethical sourcing and invest in long-term farm partnerships, you help create a more resilient, sustainable chocolate industry.
Look for minimally processed cacao products, like our pure cocoa powder or single-origin cacao nibs, that celebrate the true richness of the bean.
Stay informed about the forces behind price hikes and remember that fair pricing isn’t just about cost. It’s about respect for farmers, local producers, and the planet.
Together, we can build a future where chocolate remains joyful, delicious, and fair from bean, to baking, to bar!
